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Global warming critical point could be reached temporarily as early as next five years

The chance of global temperatures temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels over the next five years is already 40 percent, rising, global news agencies reported, cited by the BTA.
That doesn't mean the world will cross the critical border set by the Paris climate accord, which specialists say is the ceiling to avoid a catastrophic effect. The Paris Agreement looks at temperatures for a 30-year period rather than individual years.

However, the forecast in the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report shows that “we are approaching measurably and inexorably” to that limit, said its Secretary-General Petteri Talas. He described the research as yet another warning to reduce greenhouse emissions.

Every year from 2021 to 2025 is likely to be one degree Celsius warmer, the research found. The chance of at least one of them becoming the warmest since statistics are led is 90 percent. So far, the record belongs to 2016. In 2020 - one of the three warmest, the average temperature was 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Warming will affect almost all areas.

WMO uses data from several sources, including NASA and the US National Oceans and Atmosphere Research Administration.

The report predicts an increased likelihood of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic, more rainfall in the Sahel in Africa and in Australia and drought in southeastern North America.

Looking at heatwaves at sea and on land, melting ice, warming oceans, and species migration to cooler areas, 'these are more than temperatures, 'said Russell Vose of the National Oceans and Atmosphere Research Climate Analysis Center “There are changes in the atmosphere, oceans, ice and biosphere that indicate a warming world.”


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